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No free delivery service Epistemic limits of passive data collection in complex social systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

Rapid model validation via the train-test paradigm has been a key driver for the breathtaking progress in machine learning and AI. However, modern AI systems often depend on a combination of tasks and data collection practices that violate all assumptions ensuring test validity. Yet, without rigorous model validation we cannot ensure the intended outcomes of deployed AI systems, including positive social impact, nor continue to advance AI research in a scientifically sound way. In this paper, I will show that for widely considered inference settings in complex social systems the train-test paradigm does not only lack a justification but is indeed invalid for any risk estimator, including counterfactual and causal estimators, with high probability. These formal impossibility results highlight a fundamental epistemic issue, i.e., that for key tasks in modern AI we cannot know whether models are valid under current data collection practices. Importantly, this includes variants of both recommender systems and reasoning via large language models, and neither naรฏve scaling nor limited benchmarks are suited to address this issue. I am illustrating these results via the widely used MOVIELENS benchmark and conclude by discussing the implications of these results for AI in social systems, including possible remedies such as participatory data curation and open science.


Appendix Potential Negative Societal Impacts

Neural Information Processing Systems

C.3 Other Differences Besides the above discussion, there are some other differences between Daniely [12] and our work. First, they analyze SGD, and we analyze a constrained optimization problem and projected SGD. This may be the reason why we can get a stronger bound on width. In the experiments in Section 5, we observe that SGD performs badly when the width is small (see the first left column in (b), Figure 4). Therefore, we suspect an algorithmic change is needed to train narrow nets with such width (due to the training difficulty), and we indeed propose a new method to train narrow nets. Second, they consider binary {+1, 1}dataset, while our results apply to arbitrary labels. In addition, their proof seems to be highly dependent on the fact that the labels are {+1, 1}, and seems hard to generalize to general labels.


ABC: Auxiliary Balanced Classifier for Class-Imbalanced Semi-Supervised Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms typically assume classbalanced datasets, although the class distributions of many real-world datasets are imbalanced. In general, classifiers trained on a class-imbalanced dataset are biased toward the majority classes. This issue becomes more problematic for SSL algorithms because they utilize the biased prediction of unlabeled data for training. However, traditional class-imbalanced learning techniques, which are designed for labeled data, cannot be readily combined with SSL algorithms. We propose a scalable class-imbalanced SSL algorithm that can effectively use unlabeled data, while mitigating class imbalance by introducing an auxiliary balanced classifier (ABC) of a single layer, which is attached to a representation layer of an existing SSL algorithm. The ABC is trained with a class-balanced loss of a minibatch, while using high-quality representations learned from all data points in the minibatch using the backbone SSL algorithm to avoid overfitting and information loss. Moreover, we use consistency regularization, a recent SSL technique for utilizing unlabeled data in a modified way, to train the ABC to be balanced among the classes by selecting unlabeled data with the same probability for each class. The proposed algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance in various class-imbalanced SSL experiments using four benchmark datasets.


Appendix to: Parallel Bayesian Optimization of Multiple Noisy Objectives with Expected Hypervolume Improvement APotential Societal Impact

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian Optimization specifically aims to increase sample efficiency for hard optimization algorithms, and consequently can help achieve better solutions without incurring large societal costs. For instance, as demonstrated in this work, automotive design problems may be solved much faster, reducing the amount of computationally costly simulations and thus the energy footprint during development. At the same time, improved solutions mean that high crash safety can be achieved with lighter cars, resulting in fewer resources required for their production and, importantly, improving fuel economy of the whole vehicle fleet. Increased robustness to noisy observations further helps reduce the resources spent on evaluating regions of the search space that are not promising. Improvements to the optimization performance and practicality of multi-objective Bayesian optimization have the potential to allow decision makers to better understand and make more informed decisions across multiple trade-offs. We expect these directions to be particularly important as Bayesian optimization is increasingly used for applications such as recommender systems [35], where auxiliary goals such as fairness must be accounted for. Of course, at the end of the day, exactly what objectives decision makers choose to optimize, and how they balance those trade-offs (and whether that is done in equitable fashion) is up to the individuals themselves. Such a partitioning allows for efficient piece-wise computation of the hypervolume improvement from a new point f(xi) by computing the volume of the intersection of the region dominated exclusively by the new point with ({f(xi),P,r) (and not dominated by the P) with each hyperrectangle Sk.


The ecosystem of machine learning competitions: Platforms, participants, and their impact on AI development

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning competitions (MLCs) play a pivotal role in advancing artificial intelligence (AI) by fostering innovation, skill development, and practical problem-solving. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of major competition platforms such as Kaggle and Zindi, examining their workflows, evaluation methodologies, and reward structures. It further assesses competition quality, participant expertise, and global reach, with particular attention to demographic trends among top-performing competitors. By exploring the motivations of competition hosts, this paper underscores the significant role of MLCs in shaping AI development, promoting collaboration, and driving impactful technological progress. Furthermore, by combining literature synthesis with platform-level data analysis and practitioner insights a comprehensive understanding of the MLC ecosystem is provided. Moreover, the paper demonstrates that MLCs function at the intersection of academic research and industrial application, fostering the exchange of knowledge, data, and practical methodologies across domains. Their strong ties to open-source communities further promote collaboration, reproducibility, and continuous innovation within the broader ML ecosystem. By shaping research priorities, informing industry standards, and enabling large-scale crowdsourced problem-solving, these competitions play a key role in the ongoing evolution of AI. The study provides insights relevant to researchers, practitioners, and competition organizers, and includes an examination of the future trajectory and sustained influence of MLCs on AI development.



Neural Localizer Fields for Continuous 3D Human Pose and Shape Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

T o this end, we propose a simple yet powerful paradigm for seamlessly unifying different human pose and shape-related tasks and datasets. Our formulation is centered on the ability - both at training and test time - to query any arbitrary point of the human volume, and obtain its estimated location in 3D. We achieve this by learning a continuous neural field of body point localizer functions, each of which is a differently parameterized 3D heatmap-based convolutional point localizer (detector).



Exploitation of a Latent Mechanism in Graph Contrastive Learning: Representation Scattering Dongxiao He

Neural Information Processing Systems

Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL) has emerged as a powerful approach for generating graph representations without the need for manual annotation. Most advanced GCL methods fall into three main frameworks: node discrimination, group discrimination, and bootstrapping schemes, all of which achieve comparable performance. However, the underlying mechanisms and factors that contribute to their effectiveness are not yet fully understood.